Insights

2026 Market Outlook

January 16, 2026

2026 Market Outlook: Why Structure Matters More Than Certainty

Periods of transition often feel uncomfortable—not because something is broken, but because old assumptions are being recalibrated.

The past few years have forced everyone to quickly adjust to higher interest rates, tighter capital, and more realistic underwriting. For many investors, that process has felt unsettling – but in reality, it now feels a bit more clarifying.

As we enter 2026, the key question is no longer whether volatility will persist—it will, likely in surprising and unexpected ways. Politicians will do what they do and markets will react and overreact, and so on and so on….

The more important question is how to position capital in an environment where outcomes depend less on perfect prediction and more on resilient structure.

First – 2025 Was Not a Failure – It Was a Reset

Looking in the rearview mirror, despite persistent doom-and-gloom headlines, 2025 was not a year of systemic breakdown. It was a year where expectations finally began to normalize.

The stock market delivered positive but uneven returns. Tariffs created chaos early in the year, fixed income markets got stronger, and precious metals like gold and silver exploded and continued their strong performance. Real estate diverged sharply: new projects built on current-rate assumptions stabilized and thrived, while those relying on older debt or aggressive growth struggled.

Most importantly, markets did not fail. Most 2025 predictions simply proved wrong—and many 2026 forecasts will likely follow suit and also be wrong!

Yet – we always continue to plan and project as best we can…

A Structural Lens for 2026

In 2026, results seem like they will be shaped by balance: disciplined leverage, liquidity, and the flexibility to adapt when conditions shift. Investors who have built resilient, diversified plans—rather than chasing perfect timing—are best positioned to act when opportunities arise.

The Cost of Waiting for Certainty

One of the most common mistakes in any market is waiting for perfect clarity before acting. As the saying goes: by the time you read about it in the news, the boat has often already sailed – and you missed it.

Clarity typically arrives after pricing has adjusted. By the time conditions feel fully comfortable, many of the best opportunities, especially in private markets, have already been captured by patient, prepared capital.

We are seeing a clear shift: away from prediction and toward readiness. Sophisticated investors are maintaining dry powder, preserving flexibility, and prioritizing downside protection while staying ready for selective deployment.

At Mortar Group, we established our strategy for the next few years over a year ago, and the early results on new offerings is promising. Interest rates are beginning to ease, inflation continues to stabilize, and global liquidity is building.

How Sophisticated Capital Is Positioning

Sometimes investing can also be pretty boring. Rather than sweeping reallocations or panic selling, experienced investors sit tight – making incremental, meaningful adjustments, simplifying portfolios and tilting toward emerging opportunities.

Assets burdened by aggressive assumptions or near-term refinancing risk have been repriced lower. Well-capitalized, cash-flowing projects continue to perform.

Another big change (for the positive) is that investors themselves are evolving, asking sharper questions, scrutinizing assumptions more closely, and demanding greater transparency and alignment. This is a healthy maturation for the market.

Real Estate in 2026: Control Over Speculation

Real estate’s long-term appeal remains intact. But after a testing cycle, the emphasis has shifted from financial engineering to execution and capital discipline.

The coming cycle is likely to reward smaller, well-located, actively managed assets where operational excellence matters most. Returns may be less dramatic than the prior decade, but they should prove more stable.

For us at Mortar Group, the plan is clear and experience based: move decisively on high-conviction opportunities, structure shorter-duration deals for stable returns, control assets efficiently, protect cash flow, and maximize tax advantages. These have always been real estate’s core strengths, especially for high-income professionals seeking reliable growth alongside stability.

A Practical Framework for the Year Ahead

Rather than chasing forecasts, the most effective approach for 2026 is fundamentals:

Avoid over-concentration in any single asset class or strategy
Maintain meaningful liquidity
Favoring investments with multiple paths to success
Prioritize downside protection over optimistic projections

These principles don’t eliminate risk; but they reduce the odds that temporary conditions force permanent impairment of capital.

A Final Thought

2026 does not require perfect timing. It requires discipline.

Markets will continue to evolve. Capital that is thoughtfully structured—balanced, flexible, and grounded in realistic assumptions—will be best positioned to adapt and thrive.

If you’d like to explore how Mortar Group balances discipline, risk, and return across our NYC multifamily projects, visit our investor resources or connect with our team.

Learn More or Get in Touch

Interested in discussing private real estate opportunities or learning about Mortar’s upcoming offerings? Visit us at mortargroup.com

Schedule a call or email our Investor Relations Manager: Francesca Gaccione | gaccione@mortargroup.com | 646-559-9471

Recent Investor Resources:

Mortar Group is a boutique, vertically integrated real estate investment and development firm specializing in high-quality multifamily projects across New York City. Our in-house design, development, and asset management platform aligns our interests with yours from day one.

We look forward to connecting in 2026.

Best regards,

Anthony Morena

Founder & Principal

Mortar Group

If you’d like to explore how Mortar manages risk and return across our projects, you can visit our investor resources or connect with our team here..